Do you know that the same views and expectations of the TOPCon #solar panel industry in the market are unreasonable? @LONGJI SOLAR’s stance on the BC technology route is based on its PERC production capacity and choosing the upgrade iteration path. Moreover, BC solar cells and solar panels technology does not reject TOPCon solar panels technology. Now market attention to BC has increased, much higher than TOPCon’s attention
Six current situations on Topcon solar technology will be shared with you in the following:
- Now the actual annual production capacity of TOPCon solar panels is about 130GW and there are more than 20GW of production equipment that did not operate due to technical/process/supply chain issues. It is expected that the real production capacity of Topcon solar panels will reach 200-240GW by the end of this year. In the second half of the year, high-efficiency solar cells and high-efficiency silicon wafers remain a relatively tight supply link in the main industry chain, with N-type/TOPCon being the most main technology.
- The same media statistics have always been astronomical, and there are too many slogans/promotional data in the industry. I analyze that there may be basic conditions for 600GW of production capacity is reasonable, there are following situations:a) Not getting financing or not having enough money but having a TOPCON production plan. It’s hard to get a load from the bank this year due to the policy on solar energy.b) Has bought equipment, but there were issues with the technical route and supplier selection. It was put into operation but can not into mass production. Similar phenomena have increased in the second half of this year, and several large manufacturers have been put into operation but did not run due to supply chain issues. c) The equipment has been successfully put into operation, but the conversion efficiency of cells and solar panels and yield are not enough, and the process problems cannot be resolved. In terms of consumption of quartz products and high mesh, leading companies have opened up a significant gap. This type of company has high costs and poor profitability. d) Now it can run and make good profits, but it has been defeated in continuous iterations. Subsequent iterations include LP dual insertion, SE/dual SE, 0bb, dual poly, TBC, etc. Each iteration opens 5-10Wps, and the gap becomes the biggest. e) Real accumulation and reserves, sustained technological and process levels, operational capabilities, and supply chain control will ensure effective supply and leading advantages will continue.
- The market has been thinking of TOPCon as a fool’s machine since the second half of last year, but the evolution of the past year has been completely different. In future iterations and progress, the gap between different types of enterprises will still be obvious.
- TOPCon cells have fluctuations in the premium for PERC. According to third-party statistics, the current price is about EURO 0.0077 /Wp (182 * 72 pieces cell type, which is actually higher), and the cost has increased by about EURO 0.026/wp (when silicon materials were expensive, the cost was almost equal). As the efficiency improves after continuous iteration, theoretically the premium will be higher, costs may decrease, and the profitability of N-type TOPCon will be stronger
- The relatively objective view regarding technical routes such as BC is that centralized power plants should be N-type TOPCon, which has significant advantages and may. If the process and cost issues of xBC technology are solved, there will be prospects in the roof market in the future. Maybe BC mass production will happen in the second year of 2024 from a few of the manufacture
- At present, the annual shipment volume of BC technology is less than 2GW, accounting for less than 5% in the market. However, as a platform technology, whether it is PERC, TOPCon, or stacked solar cell technology behind HJT, BC technology can be adopted. This connection method has great prospects in the next 10 yearsfollow me to know more about the latest solar panels industry news